Labour’s promise to current PIP claimants that they would not be affected by the 4-point rule may be almost worthless, lasting only a few months, as the government has announced they will be rushing through a new PIP assessment system “as quickly as possible” after Autumn 2026.  

The proposed PIP 4-point rule will take effect from November 2026, if the current bill goes through.

According to the Pathways to Work Green Paper (Annex A), the new single assessment for PIP was due to be implemented in 2028/29.

But the Timms Review of the PIP Assessment. Terms of Reference now states that “. . .  we expect it to conclude by Autumn 2026”.

And Liz Kendall told parliament today (see parliament tv around 15.56) that “The review will conclude by Autumn 2026 and we will then implement any changes arising from that as quickly as possible”. 

Depending on how extensive the changes are, this means that they could be in place in early 2027, only months after the 4-point rule has been introduced.  As the document states, new rules could take the form “of changes to primary legislation, secondary legislation, as well as a range of potential non-legislative actions.”  Some aspects of the points system, for example, could be changed very quickly using secondary legislation.

We have seen no evidence so far that current claimants will be exempt from changes brought in by the Timms review, exemption seems only to extend to some of the changes relating to Universal Credit and Personal Independence Payment Bill. 

The new single assessment created by Timms will also be the gateway to an award of the universal credit health element, so it’s very hard to see how current claimants could be assessed using the current test once the single assessment is introduced.

If this proves not to be the case we will issue an update.

The terms of reference say that the new PIP assessment will be “coproduced with disabled people, along with the organisations that represent them, experts, MPs and other stakeholders, so a wide range of views and voices are heard.”

But it goes on to add that “The review will ultimately report to the Secretary of State for Work and Pensions for final decisions.”  This raises the question of what degree of influence on the final outcome disabled people will have, after they have been “heard”.

The review will look at every aspect of the assessment, “including activities, descriptors and associated points – to consider whether these effectively capture the impact of long-term health conditions and disability in the modern world.”

It will also consider whether issues other than the assessment should be taken into account, including “evidence related to an individual’s personal circumstances and environment.”  It’s hard to know what this could mean.  It could, for example, be anything from whether you live alone to what sort of bathroom you have or how far the nearest bus stop is.

The review will also look at “What role the assessment could and should play in unlocking wider support to better achieve higher living standards and greater independence.”  Again, it’s hard to know what this means, but it could suggest the PIP assessment being used to give access to therapy or treatment.

The review of PIP is clearly going to be very wide ranging but it is also going to be completed at speed.  If the new PIP assessment includes the 4-point rule, or something equally draconian, current claimants may only have a few months exemption from it after November 2026.  The bringing forward of the implementation of the new PIP assessment seems to be another underhand trick from a department that deals in little else.

You can download an explanatory letter from Stephen Timms to all MPs which includes the proposed amendment exempting current claimants from the 4-point rule from this page.

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  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 3 hours ago
    According to R4 Today programme just after 07:09, Starmer's going to be engaging before the vote in 'persuasion'. Sounds scary.

    My advice to him is to ditch the pride and prejudice and stick to sense and sensibility, then chill out and watch emma at wimbledon from mansfield park, or northanger abbey, or one of the other grace and favour country houses, with lady susan or whoever he's intending to appoint as his next special adviser, because if he pursues this hare brained welfare bill the ultimate cost will make sanditon look like investment in a Blue Peter model.

    Forgive me, just trying to de-stress. 
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    · 8 hours ago
    From Robert Preston on twitter: 

    The underlying discontent among rebellious and even loyal Labour MPs stems from what many would say is a pathetically late discovery: that what’s driving so much government policy is Rachel Reeves’s fiscal rules and the absolute power of the Office for Budget Responsibility in determining whether she is breaching those rules or not.

    Any illusion that this isn’t the single most important driver of government decision-making was shattered today by the revealed contradiction between its establishment of a supposedly fundamental review led by disabilities minister Stephen Timms to shape new criteria for awarding Personal Independence Payments, while nonetheless sticking with the contradictory stipulation that from November next year no one will be eligible for PIP if they don’t score four points on one of PIP’s existing criteria.

    It is absurd and illogical to characterise Timms’s review as the face of humane reform while simultaneously saying that this new four-point rule based on existing criteria will willy-nilly come into effect next year.

    So what’s really going on?

    The work and pensions secretary’s unspoken reason for sticking to the four-point reform is that without it, and under the OBR-assessed fiscal rules, Reeves would have to fill a £5bn hole in her finances in the autumn’s budget, and not the £2.5bn hole created by Kendall’s partial welfare-reform climb down.

    That is a big difference when it comes to any taxes Reeves may have to raise or any spending she may have to cut.

    So a growing number of Labour MPs see this subservience to the OBR and the fiscal rules as just the stupidest motivation for making today’s decisions that affect the lives of the most fragile of UK citizens - decisions that will, on the government’s own calculations, shift 150,000 vulnerable people into poverty.

    These MPs were bitten once by the OBR dog when Reeves chose to means-test the winter fuel allowance as proof of her fealty to the OBR’s jurisdiction over her own fiscal rules. With the disability reforms, many of them now feel twice shy.

    They don’t ask why a Labour government respects the OBR, especially after the Truss/Kwarteng fiscal debacle caused by their disrespect for the OBR.

    But they do question why the Chancellor and Treasury endow the OBR with an almost mystical ability to determine which policies are sensible and why Reeves has seemingly abdicated responsibility for trying to sell the government’s initiatives to the country’s creditors independently of the OBR and fiscal rules straitjacket.

    So whatever the outcome of the vote tomorrow on the welfare reforms, Reeves and Starmer are now under enormous pressure - probably irresistible pressure - to lose their OBR religion.
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 57 minutes ago
      @D Peston also said on ITV news yesterday something to the effect that he thinks Reeves’ days are numbered if Starmer wants to survive this
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      · 2 hours ago
      @D Just shows how many incompetent people we have representing us in parliament, everything Rachel from accounts is doing is one of 2 reasons, her self imposed rules which give her no wiggle room, she only allowed 10 billion headroom which is pathetically stupid because that’s continually wiped out by fluctuating world events, bond rates etc and then it’s always about OBR forecasts and revisions and so her headroom is wiped out again and again and again.

      We are also paying really stupid interest rates because of the previous Prime Minister when he was Chancellor he borrowed but did pay a small premium to lock in the interest rates charged on what he borrowed, he gambled that we would always have access to low costs loans and bonds.  Everyone is paying the price for incompetence !
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 8 hours ago
    https://commonsbusiness.parliament.uk/Document/96167/Html?subType=Standard

    Today’s order of business House of Commons, second reading UC & PIP payment bill.


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    · 11 hours ago
    How is there a £2.5B cost if the concessions are worthless?
    Don’t disagree with this piece but just goes to show desperately need clarification after ministers very confusing statement.
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 11 hours ago
    I checked Scope's forums and people are in complete despair, paralysed by worry for the future, I'm just personally so angry and upset, for now 20+ years I've worked with Counsellors, took antidepressants like smarties, I worked through it all until 2022 when I completely lost the plot, they now say I have "CPTSD" where symptoms include outbursts of violent rage and self harm, I had it controlled until recently and I'm having episodes of self harm and flying into a rage over this whole saga.

    I engage with the NHS and other support teams but I'm losing the plot completely, they call it a "mental health crisis". I worked with a damaged cervical spine for years, my mental issues took me out of work which is the irony of it all, the pain day to day in my neck and the left side of my torso is nothing compared to the pain in my mind and I thank Labour, Reform and the Tories for making everything worse.

    One thing these past two years of attack after attack on incapacitated/disabled people has taught me is not to be insular, I truly care for the plight of the disabled and it's them who inspire me to never give up because they have it far worse than I do and it's true, having to overcome immense obstacles day to day and yet they keep fighting.
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 2 hours ago
      @JJ “It's them who inspire me to never give up because they have it far worse than I do and it's true, having to overcome immense obstacles day to day and yet they keep fighting.”

      You are one of those disabled people.  You are overcoming immense obstacles day to day and yet you keep fighting.  You, yourself are an inspiration.  Never forget that.
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 11 hours ago
    I understand why people are worried about more changes, but they are a long way off, and there's nothing we can do about them now.   BUT, we can try to apply pressure to make sure the review is fair.  Considering the govt's green paper consultation was a complete sham, there will be little faith in it.  And somehow Kendall and Timms have to be made aware that they are being watched.
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 3 hours ago
      @SLB But can we trust the current assurances, and might not 'more changes' cancel out any offered straws at which we desperately clutch in haste? Surely not knowing details of a review that is "barely underway, where we have no idea of the conclusions or how they will be implemented" is a major cause for concern, and reason not to risk allowing the government to sneak in piecemeal all sorts of treachery with the pretence of its having been agreed?
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 12 hours ago
    The sound of silence for Liz Kendall was a big problem for Starmer beyond welfare reform

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-mps-rebellion-kendall-starmer-silence-b2779786.html
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    · 12 hours ago
    I think this, from the article linked below by @HL, is important:

    "Other MPs who had previously backed an amendment by Hillier said they would now back the bill at its second reading or abstain, but would vote against it after that if their questions still were not answered." (my italics).

    Whilst it is rare for a bill to be voted out at 3rd reading, these are rare times, with rare behaviour, rushing through all the stages on the same day next week, and the bill could be thrown out when it is there in black and white for everyone to see, pull apart, table amendments and, ultimately, vote against. Not all is lost if it's voted through tomorrow.
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 10 hours ago
      @sara There's also the fact that the Assisted Dying bill saw people switch sides for the third reading.
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 11 hours ago
      @sara My feeling is it’s really important we keep on contacting MPs tomorrow.
      We still have time - I believe the vote is not until the evening.

      After then it’s likely too late -
      No regrets
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 11 hours ago
      @sara I didn't actually  expect a large rebellion until the 3rd reading to be honest
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 13 hours ago
    MPs voting to push people into poverty.
    This is actually INSANE.
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 13 hours ago
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jun/30/liz-kendall-labour-welfare-bill

    “It’s counterintuitive to imagine that some Labour MPs came into politics to make life harder for some disabled people, but Liz might just be that person”

    Brilliant from crace as usual
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 13 hours ago
    Some MP’s and committee chairs don’t think the concessions go far enough 
    ,

  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 13 hours ago
    I love this guy, he makes me laugh every time, and I really need that this evening:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2025/jun/30/liz-kendall-labour-welfare-bill
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 12 hours ago
      @Gingin Fingers in her ears while saying "I am listening, listening is the right thing to do!" I noticed the slogans she kept repeating like it was a mantra. Truth is Liz Kendall has always been against the disabled even before she became a member of this government and her view can be traced back for 15 years from the time she served under Harriet Harman
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 13 hours ago
    Whatever the outcome of tomorrow, we have all chosen to fight back and not be forced into submission. I’m proud of all of us for fighting. I’m sure we will have more fights in the future but we must rest and be proud of our self’s for how much we have achieved together. 
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 13 hours ago
    Are they still planning on only scrapping the work capability assessment LCWRA in 2028/29 or is there a chance those goalposts will be moved too?
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 14 hours ago
    Andrew Marr via LBC said that between 50-70 Labour MP's will rebel meaning Labour will win tomorrows vote. What an UTTER disgrace and I hope people remember this one, remember Labour. 
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 12 hours ago
      @Dave Dee Although I think it's likely they will win tomorrow's vote, if 70 Labour MPs vote against it wouldn't take all that many abstentions for the government to lose. 
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    · 14 hours ago

    "Other MPs who had previously backed an amendment by Hillier said they would now back the bill at its second reading, but would vote against it after that if their questions still were not answered."

    This raises the possibility that crunch time may not be tomorrow, but - assuming they win tomorrow's vote - next week, when the third reading is held (I'm assuming that happens if Hoyle rolls over for the government and certifies this as a money bill - if not, presumably third reading will be some way down the line). It seems almost inconceivable they could lose at third reading - that hasn't happened to any government in decades - but this is so shambolic I honestly would not be that surprised.
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 57 minutes ago
      @sara No apology required!
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      · 12 hours ago
      @tintack I was thinking along same lines @tintack, when I posted above, before reading your post. Sorry!
  • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
    · 14 hours ago
    John crace of the guardian’s take on Liz Kendal today 
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    · 15 hours ago
    Mp people should be told this before they vote disgusting if it's true 
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    · 15 hours ago
    So existing pip claimants have been given false hope, how cruel, after months of distress. Seems like they will try every dirty trick in the book to get the cuts through, even mis selling the concessions to the rebel mps to get them on side. If these cuts go through the government will have blood on their hands & they don’t give a flying fig! Shame on them! This smacks of genocide.
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 1 hours ago
      @SLB thank you for that.  FOr those of us with mental health issues, this constant worrying can be so painful emotionally, when we are struggling already. I'm due for a review for PIP in mid 2027 and get pension 2029 so was hoping I would escape much more stress.  
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 11 hours ago
      @Kim We don't actually know that.  The article from B&W asks lots of questions about a review that is barely underway, where we have no idea of the conclusions or how they will be implemented - if at all.  We've all had plenty enough to worry about without now turning attention to something we can do absolutely nothing about until the results of the review are published, which will probably be in 2027.  And then any change to eligibility will again have to go through the Commons.  We might as well all start worrying about what each of the main parties might do if they win an election in 2029.  There are undoubtedly going to be things to fight in the future - that's the nature of being on benefits, alas - but this one is a looooong way out. 
    • Thank you for your comment. Comments are moderated before being published.
      · 14 hours ago
      @Kim Couldn't agree more.